PREDICTING THE SEVERITY OF GREAT POWER WAR FROM ITS EXTENT - STATISTICAL ILLUSIONS, 1816-1990

Authors
MOUL WB
Citation
Wb. Moul, PREDICTING THE SEVERITY OF GREAT POWER WAR FROM ITS EXTENT - STATISTICAL ILLUSIONS, 1816-1990, The Journal of conflict resolution, 38(1), 1994, pp. 160-169
Citations number
9
Categorie Soggetti
Social, Sciences, Interdisciplinary","Political Science","International Relations
Journal title
The Journal of conflict resolution → ACNP
ISSN journal
00220027
Volume
38
Issue
1
Year of publication
1994
Pages
160 - 169
Database
ISI
SICI code
0022-0027(1994)38:1<160:PTSOGP>2.0.ZU;2-P
Abstract
Shortly after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and shortly before Op eration Desert Storm in January 1991, Cioffi-Revilla forecast that the battle fatalities of an Iraq-United Nations war would be between 100, 000 and a million or so, depending on the number of belligerents. The lower estimate presumes four states were to fight; and the higher one presumes ten states were to fight. Whatever the accuracy of the foreca st, this article examines the historical reliability of the relationsh ip on which the forecast rests. The apparent linear relationship betwe en the extent and severity of great power war over 1816-1990 is illuso ry.