Cancer mortality trends from 1953 to 1991 were assessed by means of da
ta supplied by the Department of Vital Statistics of the Ministry of P
ublic Health. The population at risk was obtained from the Bureau of S
tatistics and Censuses. Age-specific and age-adjusted mortality rates
were calculated, using the world standard population, for a number of
sites or groups of sites. In order to obtain relative risks of death f
or each period, Poisson regression models were fitted to the data usin
g the GLIM program. The main model included age and period as explanat
ory variables. Among males, the principal increase was observed for lu
ng cancer, followed by prostatic cancer. The rates were mainly stable
in colon cancer and leukaemias, whereas gastric cancer showed a marked
decline. Also, a recent decline was seen for oesophageal cancer. In f
emales a steady decline in mortality was observed for all sites combin
ed. Major decreases were seen for oesophageal, gastric, cervical and t
otal uterine cancers. The only cancers showing significant increases w
ere breast cancer, and lung cancer for the most recent period. Providi
ng that there were no changes in death registration or in survival rat
es, changes in prevalence of risk factors might be responsible for the
observed trends. (C) 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.