VALIDATION AND UNCERTAINTIES OF REAL-TIME MODELING OF ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION OVER MEDIUM AND LONGER DISTANCES

Validation is an important part of model development, and accordingly the 3-DRAW model. which simulates the long range transport of radionuc lides in the event of a nuclear accident, has been used to simulate th e dispersion of smoke from the Gulf oil fires. This study has taken pl ace in collaboration with the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO), using d ata obtained from the Meteorological Research Flight (MRF). The comple x conditions under which models must predict the dispersion of materia ls are also discussed, with particular reference to frontal systems wh ich are important since they can produce significant wet deposition ov er large areas.