UNCERTAINTY IN THE INGESTION DOSE CALCULATION

This paper focuses on the uncertainty due to parameter variabilities i n the food chain model and the ingestion dose calculation of the radio ecological model ECOSYS, which is the basis of the food chain and the dose module in the European decision support system RODOS. Investigati ons on parameter sensitivity and model uncertainty are performed by ap plying a Monte Carlo method with Latin Hypercube sampling. The uncerta inties of predicted contamination of foodstuffs as well as the uncerta inties of dose predictions are estimated taking into account the corre lations between parameters. Both, the sensitivity of model parameters and the uncertainties of model results are dependent on the actual rad ioecological situation: important factors are especially the type of r adionuclide and the time of year when the deposition occurs.