DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IN NITROGENASE ACTIVITY OF ALNUS-INCANA EXPLAINED BY WEATHER VARIABLES - A MULTIVARIATE TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

A modelling system is described that indicates the extent to which day -to-day variations in nitrogenase activity in young Alnus incana (L.) Moench, grown in defined conditions in the field, may be affected by w eather conditions both during and prior to the day of measurement. Nit rogenase activity (acetylene reduction activity, ARA) was measured wee kly on intact field-grown grey alder (A. incana) plants, 0.15-0.42 m t all at planting, nodulated with Frankia. The measurements were done at noon on two groups of plants in 1987 and on two other groups in 1988. Each group was made up of five or six plants. Seven weather variables : daily sunshine hours, daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperatur e, daily mean and 1300 h relative humidity, and daily rainfall were us ed. The relation between log(ARA/leaf area) and the weather variables were analysed using a PLS model (partial least squares projection to l atent structures). The advantage of PLS is that it can handle x-variab les that are correlated. Data from 1987 were chosen as a training set. Multivariate PLS time series analysis was made by adding, in a stepwi se manner, the weather data up to 5 d before the day of measurement. T his procedure gave six models with n 7 x-variables (n = 1-6). With t he models from the time series analysis of 1987 data, true predictions of ARA per leaf area were made from weather data 1988 (test set 1) an d from 'early-season' weather data from 1987 and 1988 (test set 2). Th e variation in ARA/leaf area could be predicted from the weather condi tions. The predictions of the two test sets improved when the weather conditions one and two days before the day of measurements were added to the model. The further addition of weather data from 3 to 5 d befor e the day of measurement did not improve the model. The good predictio ns of ARA/leaf area show that the alders responded to the variable wea ther conditions in the same way in 1988 as in 1987, despite the ten-fo ld difference in size (leaf area) at the end of the growing season. Am ong the weather variables, air temperature and the daily sunshine hour s were positively correlated to ARA, while relative air humidity and r ainfall were negatively correlated to ARA. The daily minimum temperatu re and rainfall appeared to have least impact on ARA. By use of PLS, w e could extract information out of a data set containing highly correl ated x-variables, information that is non-accessible with conventional statistical tools such as multiple regression. When making measuremen ts of nitrogenase activities under field conditions, we propose that a ttention should be paid to the weather conditions on the days precedin g the day of measurement. The day-today variation in nitrogenase activ ity is discussed with reference to known effects of stress factors und er controlled conditions.