ON THE HUMAN COSTS OF COLLECTIVIZATION IN THE SOVIET-UNION

Population statistics suppressed or hidden during the 1930s are now em erging from the archives of the former Soviet Union. Of foremost impor tance is the 1937 census, the results of which are now available. In L ight of the new data it is possible to reappraise the human losseS gen erated by the liquidation of the kulaks, forced colLectivization, and the famine of 1932-33. Using appropriate hypotheses concerning the nor mal level of mortaLity and the number of births between the 1926 and t he 1937 censuses, the article presents a plausible range of estimates of excess mortality during the decade, from a minimum of about 6 milli on to a maximum of about 13 million. Many estimates arrived at in earl ier studies fall within this range, but some of them are too conservat ive or are clearly exaggerated. Parallels are drawn between this man-m ade catastrophe and the 1959-61 famine that occurred in China as a con sequence of the Great Leap Forward. In both cases economic, political, and social circumstances-forced acceleration of industrialization, fo rced collectivization, increased compulsory grain procurement-not only caused decline in agricultural output and starvation, but weakened tr aditional networks of mutual support and crippled the traditional defe nses that could mitigate economic and social stress.