EXTRAPOLATING HUMAN PROBABILITY JUDGMENT

Authors
OSHERSON D SMITH EE MYERS TS SHAFIR E STOB M
Citation
D. Osherson et al., EXTRAPOLATING HUMAN PROBABILITY JUDGMENT, Theory and decision, 36(2), 1994, pp. 103-129
Citations number
38
Categorie Soggetti
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Journal title
Theory and decision → ACNP
ISSN journal
00405833
Volume
36
Issue
2
Year of publication
1994
Pages
103 - 129
Database
ISI
SICI code
0040-5833(1994)36:2<103:EHPJ>2.0.ZU;2-V
Abstract
We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the d esign of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a pers on's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then a ble to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The a lgorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.