THE DIMENSIONS OF DANGEROUSNESS REVISITED - ASSESSING FORENSIC PREDICTIONS ABOUT VIOLENCE

In this article, we extend our previous study on clinical predictions of violence using the Dangerous Behavior Rating Scale by increasing fo llow-up interval from 2 to 6 years and supplying new data on predictio n-outcome correlations for multidiscipline assessors. A total of 162 a ccused persons remanded for evaluations at METFORS were assessed using three criterion measures: subsequent violence, criminality, and gener al incidents. Statistical analyses revealed a range of predictive perf ormance, contingent on several conditions including the identities of evaluators, categories of subjects, and length and context of follow-u p. Even prognostications yielding the highest magnitude coefficients, reaching .53 in the case of psychometric forecasts of behavior in psyc hiatric hospitals, failed to account for more than 28% of the predicti on-outcome covariance. Implications of the results are considered for the future role of the dangerousness construct.