We compared the health status of 863 health maintenance organization (
HMO) enrollees with that of 4,576 non-enrollees, controlling for demog
raphics and area of residence, using 1994 data from the Medicare Curre
nt Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). HMO respondents were less likely to repo
rt fair or poor health, functional impairment, or heart disease. Avera
ge predicted costs based on various health-status measures were substa
ntially lower for HMO respondents than for respondents in fee-for-serv
ice (FFS) arrangements. The Medicare payment formula for HMOs does not
adequately adjust for the better health and consequent lower expected
casts of HMO enrollees. The addition of health-status measures would
improve payment accuracy and reduce average HMO payments significantly
below current levels.