SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE-CHANGE OF THE MASS-BALANCE OF GLACIERS IN SOUTHERN NORWAY

A degree-day model developed for parameterizing melt rates on the Gree nland ice sheet is adapted to the climatic conditions on glaciers in s outhern Norway. The model is calibrated by means of observed average m ass-balance-elevation relationships (1963-90) for three glaciers in a west-east transect in southern Norway and 30 year normals (1961-90) of temperature and precipitation observed at nearby climate stations. Th e calibration gives a surprisingly small variation of the model parame ters (degree-day factors for snow- and ice-melt, and precipitation-ele vation gradient) from one glacier to another. The derived values of th e parameters are used to estimate the change of the mass-balance-eleva tion relationship for different climatic scenarios. The study indicate s that a low-lying glacier in the maritime, high-precipitation environ ment near the Atlantic coast is more sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes than the high elevated glaciers in the dry, mor e continental climate farther away from the coast. However, all of the glaciers studied will lose mass in a warmer climate, unless the warmi ng is accompanied by a dramatic increase in the precipitation of 25-40 % deg-1 warming.