This paper describes a prospective study of the relationship between n
on-psychotic prodromal symptoms and psychotic symptoms in 55 schizophr
enic (DSM-III-R) out-patients. Once a month, a number of non-psychotic
symptoms generally regarded as prodromal symptoms in schizophrenia we
re assessed, as well as psychotic symptoms, with standardised self-adm
inistered instruments and rating scales for a minimum of 12 months (ra
nge 12-29). The data were analysed for each patient using a longitudin
al correlational design with a 1-month lag between the prodromal and p
sychotic symptoms over the total period. Results showed that in less t
han one-fifth of subjects did any of the prodromal symptoms, individua
lly or in combination, show a significantly positive correlation with
the subsequent level of psychotic symptoms. Such relationships were si
gnificant in an even smaller proportion of subjects when the confoundi
ng effect of concurrent psychotic symptoms on prodromal symptoms was p
artialled out. High levels of prodromal symptoms appeared to have adeq
uate specificity but low sensitivity in their power to predict high le
vels of subsequent psychotic symptoms. There were no differences in ag
e, gender, medication levels, and the number of previous admissions be
tween the subjects who did or did not show a relationship between puta
tive prodromal symptoms and psychotic symptoms.