A RECURRENT MODEL OF DYNAMICS OF THE 11-YEAR SOLAR-ACTIVITY CYCLES

In our previous work, we obtained Poincare's mapping for the solar-act ivity phase trajectory as reconstructed from the data on sunspot numbe rs (Wolf numbers). In this work, we use another method to construct Po incare's mapping from Wolf number maxima in 11-year cycles. It is show n that, after a small correction, the sequence of maxima is satisfacto rily described by a one-dimensional nonlinear mapping, which demonstra tes chaotic behavior. We discuss the properties of this image, possibi lities of reconstruction of the cycle maxima before the epoch of direc t observations, and a forecast of future solar-activity dynamics. A me chanism is proposed for the origin of global minima of the activity as temporal intermittence of laminar phases of the first kind. The quali tative agreement of the solar activity, as reconstructed from the imag e at a millennium timescale, with the data on cosmogenic radionuclides is demonstrated.