ECOLOGICAL MODELS AND THE PITFALLS OF CAUSALITY

After the disappointing experiences with complex ecological models in the days of the International Biological Program, dynamic modelling ha s never really recovered a convincing niche in applied ecology. Simple generic models have become the tool par excellence for the developmen t of theory. However, the popularity of these abstract theoretical mod els among practical ecologists is marginal. It is argued that the anta gonism against such models is largely due to a misconception about the ir possible role in the process of unravelling the functioning of ecol ogical communities. We discuss the pitfalls of analyzing the driving c ausal relationships in real world ecosystems, and evaluate role for mi nimal models in this context.