PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF CARDIOLOGIC SCREENING FINDINGS ON THE TRENDS IN MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION INCIDENCE FOR THE NEXT 7 YEARS

A prospective follow-up within 7 years was performed for 4148 males ag ed 40-59 from an open population of Minsk who had been subjected to ca rdiological screening. The frequency of myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) established at screening ex ceeded that of CHD-free subjects 4.1 times. For separate forms of CHD a relative risk for patients with MI history, angina pectoris of effor t (by Roze questionnaire) and isolated ischemic changes on ECG at rest amounted to 8.6, 4.0 and 2.3, respectively. MI was associated with bl ood pressure, cholesterol levels. A multivariate analysis revealed a s ignificant independent contribution of hypertension, hypercholesterole mia, smoking and age to the risk of MI development in subjects free of CHD at screening. Concrete values of beta-coefficients of the logisti c function prognosticating the risk of MI development in the populatio n studied have been determined.