EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON INDIAN MONSOON SIMULATED WITH A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL

The impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate of Indian subcontinent and its variability is studied using the output from a time-dependent greenhouse warming simulation as well as a refe rence control experiment performed with the Hamburg global coupled atm osphere-ocean circulation model. This model demonstrates substantial s kill in simulating the present-day climate and its interannual variabi lity over the monsoon onset date of the SW-monsoon over about 20 degre es N inferred from the control run is similar to the observed onset da te. With the exception of temperature, the projected changes in impact -related climatic variables over a period of 100 years are within the range of inter-annual variability in the monsoon region. There is no c lear evidence for a significant change in the seasonal-mean monsoon ra infall or the variability of the monsoon rainfall in scenario A experi ment. region. The India along