American state lottery sales growth slowed dramatically in the recent
recession compared with the experience of the last decade. Evidence fr
om pooled quarterly per capita sales data for lottery states from the
end of 1983 through 1991 shows a high real income elasticity relative
to other state revenues, around 3.9. Furthermore, lottery sales are se
nsitive to changes in the state unemployment rate, increasing by about
0.17 percent for each one percent increase in that rate. For instance
, an increase in unemployment from 4 to 5 percent would be associated
with around a 4.25 percent increase in quarterly lottery sales, other
influences unchanged. That pattern is consistent with the hypothesis t
hat in recession people find more attractive the small chance of winni
ng a huge lottery prize for the low ticket price. The unemployment rat
e relationship works as partial offset to the income relationship. The
analysis also finds lower lottery sales where states rely less on lot
to in the game portfolio and that sales decay with lottery age, althou
gh sales flatten as the lottery matures. Combining all influences, per
capita real sales would be expected to flatten out as economic expans
ion continues.