STRUCTURAL-CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE - PRODUCTION LINKAGES AND AGRICULTURAL DEMAND-LED INDUSTRIALIZATION

This paper analyzes agriculture's forward and backward multipliers in order to assess the appropriateness of an agricultural-demanded-indust rialization strategy (ADLI). Cross-section regressions are run on soci al accounting matrix (SAM) multipliers and their decompositions obtain ed from a data set consisting of 27 SAMs. Agriculture's strong backwar d linkage to non-agriculture makes it a 'leading sector' in Hirschman' s big-push industrialization strategy. The decompositions of these mul tipliers illuminate the crucial, indirect contributions made by househ old demands to agricultural production linkages. The potential of the linkages make ADLI an attractive policy alternative for countries at l ow levels of development.