A SIMULATION-MODEL FOR STATE GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND EVALUATION - THE NEW-JERSEY CASE

Working for the New Jersey Office of State Planning (OSP), the authors developed a computer simulation model to measure the land-use, fiscal , and infrastructure impacts of a variety of future growth scenarios. The model can be used by decision makers as a plan development tool, a s well as for impact analysis once a plan is adopted. The chief advant ages of the OSP model are its level of geographic detail and the abili ty to simulate impacts under a number of demographic and planning scen arios. In spite of the usefulness of such a tool for growth management planning, New Jersey's political/planning context has made the modeli ng effort especially challenging. To some critics, the very existence of a state model runs counter to the ''bottom-up '' planning philosoph y embodied in the state-local negotiation process known as cross-accep tance. And as the Plan continues to evolve through negotiations, its p olicies become a moving target, difficult to simulate in program code. The OSP model has, however, made substantial contributions to the sta te planning effort. In urban areas, the model's fiscal results have mo ved the discussion away from population and employment targets to issu es of income and population-employment linkages. The model has also be en used by county governments as part of a technical assistance progra m. This use may ultimately turn out to be the application most consist ent with the political realities of a growth management plan like New Jersey's.