THE DETERMINANTS OF UNITED-STATES LABOR DISPUTES

We present a bargaining model of union contract negotiations, in which the union decides between two threats: the union can strike, or it ca n continue to work under the expired contract. The model makes predict ions about the level of dispute activity and the form disputes take. S trike incidence increases as the strike threat becomes more attractive , because of low unemployment or a real wage drop. We test these predi ctions by estimating logistic models of dispute incidence and dispute composition for negotiations from 1970 to 1989. We find support for th e model's key predictions, but these associations are weaker after 198 1.