De. Nilsson et S. Pelger, A PESSIMISTIC ESTIMATE OF THE TIME REQUIRED FOR AN EVE TO EVOLVE, Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological Sciences, 256(1345), 1994, pp. 53-58
Theoretical considerations of eye design allow us to find routes along
which the optical structures of eyes may have evolved. If selection c
onstantly favours an increase in the amount of detectable spatial info
rmation, a light-sensitive patch will gradually turn into a focused le
ns eye through continuous small improvements of design. An upper limit
for the number of generations required for the complete transformatio
n can be calculated with a minimum of assumptions. Even with a consist
ently pessimistic approach the time required becomes amazingly short:
only a few hundred thousand years.