THE GROWTH OF WOMENS REPRESENTATION IN THE CANADIAN HOUSE-OF-COMMONS AND THE ELECTION OF 1984 - A REAPPRAISAL

In the 1980s, Canada went from having one of the lowest levels of fema le representation in its national legislature to having one of the hig hest among countries with single-member district electoral systems. Th e authors examine the common assertion that this increase was largely due to the surprising Progressive Conservative landslide in the .1984 federal election. By simulating plausible alternative election results they find there would have been a substantial increase in the number of women in the parliament, regardless of how the vote split in 1984. The simulations are followed by probit analyses for 1980, 1984 and 198 8 which examine what factors affected the probability a major-party ca ndidate would be a woman and what factors affected the probability tha t a successful candidate would be a woman.