We construct a new coarse-grained effective potential which enables us
to estimate the probabilities of thermal fluctuations above an arbitr
ary threshold at different length scales. This potential is convex, an
d converges to the usual effective potential in the limit that the coa
rse-graining volume becomes infinite. We use it to gain new insight in
to the meaning of the Ginzburg temperature, and briefly consider the r
ole of defects in supplying large ''subcritical'' fluctuations at the
phase transition.