POLICY-RELEVANT THEORY AND THE CHALLENGE OF DIAGNOSIS - THE END OF THE COLD-WAR AS A CASE-STUDY

This paper concentrates on three questions: (1) What analytical challe nges does explaining the end of the Cold War necessarily entail? (2) I n what ways did Soviet perceptions change during the Gorbachev period and how was the change perceived and explained by Western analysts? In other words, what did Americans learn about what Soviet leaders had l earned? (3) How can we explain the learning that occurred? What is inv olved in treating perception as the dependent variable? The first part of the paper argues that Alexander George was correct in identifying actor specific theory as an important need in international relations research. Part two then looks at Western efforts to study Soviet perce ptions as a case study of how the field dealt with the theoretical and operational task. The section closes with a discussion of what we can learn about our old conclusions and methods from the new information and changes that Gorbachev's perestroika unleashed. Part three takes u p the task of explaining change, treating perception as a dependent va riable.