CORRECT AND INCORRECT INTERPRETATIONS OF CORRELATIONS BETWEEN RISK PERCEPTIONS AND RISK BEHAVIORS

Correlations between risk perceptions and risk behaviors are used by i nvestigators to answer 2 important and easily confused questions: Are individuals' perceptions of their personal risk accurate, correctly re flecting their precautions and their risk-increasing behaviors? and Do es recognition of high personal risk cause people to adopt precautions to reduce that risk? Researchers who use survey data to investigate t hese questions often look at the wrong correlations to get their answe rs. Furthermore, as members of a population adopt precautions and chan ge their risk status, correlations between perceived risk and risk beh avior in this population also change. A mathematical model of precauti on adoption-allowing a bidirectional relationship between perception a nd behavior-is used to illustrate the different correlations between r isk perception and risk behavior that can be examined and the changes in correlations that can occur with the passage of time. Recommendatio ns are provided concerning the correlations most appropriate for answe ring each of the 2 preceding questions. Which correlation is appropria te to answer the second question varies depending on whether a study i s begun before people have taken precautions or after ample time to ta ke precautions has already passed.