CD8(- A USEFUL IMMUNOLOGICAL MARKER FOR MONITORING HIV-1-INFECTED PATIENTS(),CD38(+) LYMPHOCYTE PERCENT )

We investigated the relationship between three prognostic markers, CD4 lymphocyte count, serum beta(2)-microglobulin (beta 2(M)) levels, and CD8(+),CD38(+) lymphocyte percent, and the association with the rate of development of AIDS. The markers were measured regularly throughout follow-up in 224 patients. The risk of developing AIDS during follow- up was investigated using Cox proportional hazards models. Time-update d values of the prognostic markers were used, which modelled the risk of AIDS according to the latest measurement of the marker rather than using a single value of the marker at baseline. During a median follow -up period of 13.6 months (range 0.5-31.9 months), 34 cases of AIDS oc curred. In a univariate analysis, all three markers predicted the deve lopment of AIDS; a 10% increase in the percentage of CD8(+) T cells ex pressing CD38(+) resulted in an 88% increase in the risk of AIDS (95% confidence interval: 53-130%; p < 0.0001). After adjustment for the cu rrent CD4 count and beta(2)M, a 10% increase in the CD8(+),CD38(+) pop ulation was associated with a 37% increase in the risk of AIDS (95% co nfidence interval: 4-81%; p = 0.02). Thus, the percentage CD8(+),CD38( +) level predicts the development of AIDS independently of the latest CD4 count and beta(2)M. This assay is therefore potentially useful in conjunction with blood CD4 counts and serum beta(2)M levels in patient management and clinical trial design.