SECULAR GROWTH TRENDS IN BRAZIL OVER 3 DECADES

This study describes secular trends in physical growth in Brazil over a period of three decades. The study is based on two comparable nation al surveys undertaken in the mid-seventies and late eighties. Mean hei ghts at ages 7 and 22 are estimated for three cohorts of males and fem ales born around 1952, 1967 and 1982, respectively. Positive secular t rends are found both between 1952 and 1967 and between 1967 and 1982. Modest height gains of around 1.0 cm per decade comparable to those de scribed in developed countries during the second half of the 19th cent ury are observed in the first period (1952-67). Outstanding height inc rements of around 2.4 cm per decade and comparable only to those descr ibed for Japanese children after 1950 are detected in the second perio d (1967-82). Height increments tending to higher values in the second period are seen for both sexes in the five Brazilian macroregions and in different economic strata. Even so, a large gap still separates the physical growth as observed in the north and northeast regions (and, generally speaking, among the poorest third of the Brazilian populatio n) from the normal growth pattern expected when living conditions are adequate. Substantial income improvements over the seventies plus the continuous progress in the availability of sanitation, health and educ ation services during the seventies and eighties are consistent with t he exceptional height gains observed between the cohorts of 1967 and 1 982. On the other hand, the tragic performance of the Brazilian econom y during recent years plus the evidence that infant mortality rates di d not decline in the eighties as they had done in the seventies may su ggest a reduction in the speed of the positive trends in growth. If th is hypothesis is true, the full development of the genetic growth pote ntial of a large part of the Brazilian population will be postponed to a very remote future.