COMPARATIVE-ASSESSMENT OF 2 FORECASTING MODELS FOR ROAD TRAFFIC EMISSIONS - A GERMAN CASE-STUDY

The paper presents a comparison of two forecasting models for road tra ffic emissions, focusing on carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen ox ides and particulate emissions produced by passenger cars in Germany. The major scenario settings are similar, assuming increasing traffic a nd accelerated penetration of catalyst cars into the fleet, complying with current emission legislation. The results indicate that both mode ls predict a substantial reduction in the near future for all componen ts considered, although the calculated absolute values differ signific antly. The analysis of the basic input data revealed that the differen ces are mainly allocated in the emission factors used and the milage d istribution for older cars.