PROJECTION OF THE MEXICAN NATIONAL LABOR-FORCE, 1980-2005

Mexico has a large and rapidly growing labor force. This paper project s the Mexican national labor force from 1980 to 2005, with varying ass umptions of vital rates, economic activity, and international migratio n. Projections are also made for the urban and rural components of the Mexican population, assuming inter-component migration flows. Results indicate that the Mexican labor force will grow over the projection p eriod at an average annual rate of 907,000 to 1,183,000 workers; will age slightly; and will have a much higher proportion female. Implicati ons are discussed in terms of Mexican-U.S. migration, possible agreeme nts on free trade, and global trends in workforce.