RACE DIFFERENCES IN CHANGING FAMILY DEMOGRAPHICS IN THE 1980S

Traditional demarcators of family formation and dissolution have chang ed dramatically over the past few decades and Black-White differences have become pronounced. In this article, we explore the degree to whic h a relatively small set of variables can account for racial differenc e in timing of initiation of sexual activity, first marriage, first bi rth, and divorce The independent variables included in the model are a dolescent living arrangements ( single-parent vs. two-parent), mother' s educational level, religion, region of the country, Area of residenc y (urban, suburban, rural), birth cohort, and year of the survey. Base d on hazard models for the rate of occurrence of each event, we estima te how Blacks would differ if they had mean values on covariates equal to White observed means. Although the results differ for the four dep endent variables, this particular set of independent variables does no t provide a satisfactory explanation of the differences between Black and White family formation and dissolution. Blacks and Whites may be r esponding to different structural and cultural constraints not easily captured by basic demographic variables.