Js. Hodges, ANALYTICAL USE OF DATA FROM ARMY TRAINING EXERCISES - A CASE-STUDY OFTACTICAL RECONNAISSANCE, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(426), 1994, pp. 444-451
In the early 1980s, the U.S. Army opened the National Training Center
(NTC) as its main U.S. training venue for battalions and brigades. The
NTC's primary purpose was training, but because the simulated combat
was fairly realistic, many hoped it would provide a sort of laboratory
for identifying problems and exploring ways to fix them. This article
describes a project that studied tactical reconnaissance at the NTC.
The project's substantive purpose was to look for problems in the orga
nization, doctrine, equipment, and training for tactical reconnaissanc
e, and to suggest remedies. Its methodological purpose was to learn ho
w to measure reconnaissance activities and how to use those measuremen
ts for analytical purposes, neither of which had been done previously.
This article gives background on the NTC and on tactical reconnaissan
ce, and then traces the steps of the reconnaissance project. The two m
ain methodological issues are how to gather measurements in venues lik
e the NTC and what kinds of questions such venues can be used to answe
r. As it turns out, high-tech measurements are generally of little use
. Low-tech measurements are useful for diagnosis (description) and hyp
othesis generation, predictions and causal inferences being fraught wi
th hazard. Modest as these uses are, the NTC data are nonetheless high
ly valuable.