PURPOSE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening mammography i
n women 40-49 years old. MATERLALS AND METHODS: A Markov model compare
d two hypothetical groups; one underwent screening mammography and the
other, observation without mammography. Variables tested included fre
quency of mammography, reduction in breast cancer mortality, and cost-
effectiveness by age group. Results were expressed as marginal cost pe
r year of life saved. RESULTS: If the estimated mortality reduction fr
om mammographic screening was 15% or greater, the marginal cost per ye
ar of life saved was comparable to that of other generally accepted me
dical procedures. Annual screening with an assumed 30% reduction in mo
rtality had a cost-effectiveness similar to that of biennial screening
with a 20% reduction. Screening mammography was less cost-effective i
n the 40-49-year-old age group than in women aged 50-79 years but more
cost-effective than in those aged 80-84 years. CONCLUSION: Although t
he parameters for screening mammography in women aged 40-49 years are
not known with certainty, the results of this analysis may help establ
ish priorities for utilization of medical resources.