EXPECTATIONS AND PREFERENCES IN BRITISH GENERAL-ELECTIONS

We address two questions: How do people form. their expectations about the likely winner the next general election? and What are the links b etween expectations and votes? Using data collected by the Gallup orga nization in Great Britain, we find that the expectations formation pro cess (1) has a significant inertia component but also a rapid adjustme nt to current information; (2) reflects voters' ability to translate e conomic expectations into political forecasts; and (3) is ''time-bound ed, '' possessing special characteristics immediately before and after a general election. The analysis also confirms the existence of a sma ll bandwagon effect, whereby expectations that one party will win infl ate that party's vote. The ability of voters to make reasonable foreca sts without being unduly influenced by their own preferences suggests that under normal circumstances voters are expressing real preferences and not simply following the crowd.