A MODEL OF THE WORLD URANIUM MARKET

In this paper the structure of the world uranium market is analysed an d an econometric model developed. The modelling effort is focused on t he spot market because developments in the spot market are increasingl y being reflected in contract arrangements and it is more transparent than the contract market. Changing surplus supplies of uranium on the spot market have led to wide variations in the spot price and this rel ationship is a focus of the analysis. The results indicate that stocks will reduce to a point where a gradual rise in spot prices can be exp ected after 193 but the recovery will be sensitive to new supply enter ing from non-traditional market sources.