Mh. Godfried et al., SOLUBLE RECEPTORS FOR TUMOR-NECROSIS-FACTOR AS PREDICTORS OF PROGRESSION TO AIDS IN ASYMPTOMATIC HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS TYPE-1 INFECTION, The Journal of infectious diseases, 169(4), 1994, pp. 739-745
Serum concentrations of soluble receptors for tumor necrosis factor-al
pha (sTNF alpha R) types I and II, beta(2)-microglobulin, and CD4 cell
counts were determined at entry and 3-5 months before AIDS diagnosis
in 20 untreated, asymptomatic human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV
-1)-seropositive subjects, who progressed to AIDS within 5.5 years of
study entry, and in an equal number of HIV-seronegative and untreated
seropositive controls, who remained asymptomatic. At entry, concentrat
ions of sTNF alpha R type II and beta(2)-microglobulin were elevated a
nd increased further in progressors. The odds ratio (OR) for sTNF alph
a R type II concentrations greater than or equal to 6.5 ng/mL was 18.4
and for beta(2)-microglobulin concentrations greater than or equal to
3 mg/L was 6.6; CD4 cell counts were not predictive. Five months befo
re diagnosis, the OR was 102.0 for sTNF alpha R type II concentrations
greater than or equal to 7.5 ng/mL, 13.5 for beta 2-microglobulin con
centrations greater than or equal to 4 mg/L, and 6.9 for CD4 cell coun
ts <250/mm(3) (counts <500/mm(3) were not predictive). Of the three va
riables, sTNF alpha R type II was proved by bivariate analysis to be t
he strongest and earliest predictor of disease progression.