D. Schatz et al., ISLET-CELL ANTIBODIES PREDICT INSULIN-DEPENDENT DIABETES IN UNITED-STATES SCHOOL-AGE-CHILDREN AS POWERFULLY AS IN UNAFFECTED RELATIVES, The Journal of clinical investigation, 93(6), 1994, pp. 2403-2407
Islet cell antibodies (ICA) in the sera of nondiabetic relatives of pa
tients with insulin-dependent diabetes (IDD) are predictive of the dis
ease, a finding that permits the design of intervention strategies to
prevent it. However, 85% or more of patients with new onset IDD have n
o affected relative. We therefore screened 9,696 schoolchildren betwee
n the ages of 5 and 18 yr (mean age 10.7 yr) in Pasco County, Florida
for ICA in three surveys during 1984/5, 1987/8, and 1990/1 and have fo
llowed them prospectively. Approximately 4,000 of these children have
been followed for nearly 8 yr. ICA titers greater than or equal to 10
Juvenile Diabetes Foundation units on replicate tests were detected in
57 of the children (0.59%). 10 children have developed diabetes so fa
r, and all had ICA detected beforehand. The likelihood of developing I
DD among the ICA-positive children was compared with 2,959 age-matched
nondiabetic first degree relatives of IDD probands who were screened
for ICA by our laboratory during the same time period and also followe
d prospectively. Of 103 (3.5%) ICA-positive relatives, 31 have develop
ed IDD. Life table analysis reveals no statistically significant diffe
rences in the probability of developing IDD between the ICA-positive s
choolchildren and ICA-positive first degree relatives (P = 0.3). The e
stimated risk of developing IDD by 7 yr in the ICA-positive schoolchil
dren was 45% (95% confidence interval 15-74%) compared with 43% (confi
dence interval 22-63%) in the relatives. We conclude that ICA appear t
o be as predictive of IDD in low-risk schoolchildren as they are in hi
gh-risk relatives. These data suggest that it is feasible to predict I
DD by screening a general population of schoolchildren for ICA and tha
t those found to be positive could be considered, in addition to relat
ives, for intervention protocols to prevent the disease.