THE REVERSE COATTAILS EFFECT - LOCAL PARTY ORGANIZATION IN THE 1989 BRAZILIAN PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION

Increasingly, it is said that the main determinants of electoral outco mes are class, ethnicity, and religion and that local political organi zations occupy only marginal roles in national elections. I assess the effects of local party organizations in the presidential election of 1989 in Brazil. Given the long hiatus in competitive politics, the abs ence of any parties linked to the country's previous democratic experi ence, and the weakness of citizen identification with political partie s, Brazil should be a textbook example of the collapse of local politi cal organizations. The presidential candidates, however, acted as if p arty endorsements mattered, and in the context of Brazilian politics, it was rational for municipal mayors to trade blocs of votes for futur e local benefits. Applying a series of increasingly complex models to the vote shares of the leading candidates, I show that all candidates did significantly better in municipalities where the mayor represented their party. I also show that spatial factors affect the tactics of l ocal politicians, and I distinguish charismatic from purely organizati onal components of support.