THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS ON THE LEVEL AND STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMENT IN GERMANY - A SIMULATION STUDY FOR THE PERIOD 1980-2000

This paper presents the results of an empirical study of the long-term impact of industrial robots on employment in Germany. The study is ba sed on an improved version of the Leontief-Duchin-Szyld dynamic input- output model. After a brief description of the technology in question, the history and possible processes of industrial robots' diffusion in Germany until the year 2000 are discussed. A special section is devot ed to simulation techniques, sources of information, and methods of da ta organization within a dynamic input-output framework. In the last p art of the paper we focus attention on the results of three different simulations, each representing different assumptions. Although there r emains uncertainty about the absolute level of the employment effect o f industrial robots, it seems very likely that the overall impact of t his selected new technology may be negative. But more important is the finding that industrial robots have a serious impact on the sectoral and especially the occupational structure of employment. In all simula tions there is a clear displacement tendency for occupations with comp aratively low skill requirements while more qualified jobs may gain fr om the diffusion of industrial robots. In the Appendix the formal desc ription of the model employed is given.