S. Nee et al., THE RECONSTRUCTED EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS, Philosophical transactions-Royal Society of London. Biological sciences, 344(1309), 1994, pp. 305-311
Phylogenies reconstructed from contemporary taxa do not contain inform
ation about lineages that have gone extinct. We derive probability mod
els for such phylogenies, allowing real data to be compared with speci
fied null models of evolution, and lineage birth and death rates to be
estimated.