SMOES - A SIMULATION-MODEL FOR THE OOSTERSCHELDE ECOSYSTEM .1. DESCRIPTION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

The model SMOES integrates the results of the ecological research prog ram conducted in the Oosterschelde estuary before and during the const ruction of a storm surge barrier. Its aim is to provide a quantitative summary of the research findings and to provide a tool for analysis a nd prediction of the ecosystem in response to human manipulations. Thi s chapter describes model background and formulations. An uncertainty analysis is used to analyze the effect of uncertainties in model param eters on model outcome. The results of the sensitivity analysis are cl assified by distinguishing groups of model parameters with a qualitati vely different effect on model results. Within these groups, a quantit ative ranking of the parameters is possible. It appears that the most sensitive parameters represent processes that are relatively little st udied in the Oosterschelde, which may provide guidelines for further r esearch.