SHORT-TERM SOLAR-FLARE PREDICTIONS BY DISTANCE-BASED REGRESSION .1. BEARALERT REGIONS IN 1988 AND 1989 - CONTINUOUS PREDICTORS

Basing on the results of Bartkowiak and Jakimiec (I 994), where the au thors applied new multiple regression method (the distance based regre ssion) to short-term solar flare activity predictions, we want to expl ain not satisfactory quality of the obtained predictions. To obtain th is explanation the interrelation structure of the variables characteri zing sunspot groups is analysed by comparing the biplots constructed f or various subsets of the data. It was found that unsignificant differ ences in the interrelation structure between two data sets (one, on th e base of which the prediction algorithm was obtained and the second, for which the prediction was performed) may be of great importance for the prediction quality.