THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF CHILDHOOD BODY-MASS INDEX VALUES FOR OVERWEIGHT AT AGE 35 Y

Larger body mass index values (BMI in kg/m2) are associated with incre ased morbidity and mortality in adulthood and there are significant co rrelations between BMI values in childhood and in adulthood. The prese nt study addresses the predictive value of childhood BMI for overweigh t at 35 +/- 5 v, defined as BMI > 28 for men and > 26 for women. Analy ses of data for 555 white children indicated that overweight at 35 y c an be predicted from BMI at younger ages. The prediction is excellent at age 18 y, good at 13 y, but only moderate at ages younger than 13 y . For 18-y-olds with a BMI value exceeding the 60th percentile, the od ds of overweight at 35 v are 34% for men and 37% for women. A clinical ly applicable method is provided to assign an overweight child to a gr oup with a known probability of high BMI values in adulthood.