Ca. Albonetti et Jr. Hepburn, PROBATION REVOCATION - A PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL OF THE CONDITIONING EFFECTS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE, Social problems, 44(1), 1997, pp. 124-138
Most studies fmd that offender's age, gender, ethnicity, prior arrest
record, severity of the current offense and level of supervision signi
ficantly influence rime to probation failure. There is little evidence
to shaw that treatment interventions significantly affect either the
likelihood of failure or the time to failure. We propose that an offen
der's prior record and lower education level - indicators of social di
sadvantage - directly affect the mean rime to a probation revocation.
Further, we suggest that social disadvantage may condition the effects
of other offender characteristics, incident offense characteristics,
and treatment intervention on failure time. Using a proportional hazar
ds model of probation revocation, we find that intervention increases
the risk of failure, as well as partial support for our hypothesis of
the conditioning effect of offender's social disadvantage.