THE ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE OF THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE-CHANGE REQUIRES A NEW APPROACH IN CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH

In the Framework Convention on Climate Change an 'ultimate objective' is formulated that calls for stabilization of the concentrations of gr eenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would allow ecosystem s to adapt naturally, safeguard food supply and enable sustainable dev elopment to proceed in a sustainable manner. This paper addresses the possible contribution of science to translate this rather vague and am biguous objective into more practicable terms. We propose a regionaliz ed, risk-based six-step approach that couples an analysis of ecosystem vulnerability to the results of simulations of climate change. An 'ul timate objective' level could be determined in terms of stabilized con centrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The level and timin g of this stabilization would be determined by a political appreciatio n of associated risks for managed and unmanaged ecosystems. These risk s would be assessed by region in an internationally coordinated scient ific effort, followed by a global synthesis.