POLITICAL-CONFLICT IN THE WORLD-ECONOMY - A CROSS-NATIONAL ANALYSIS OF MODERNIZATION AND WORLD-SYSTEM THEORIES

Explanations for the high levels of political instability and conflict among less developed countries relative to developed countries hinge on the question of whether political conflict results from internal do mestic processes or external international relations. Modernization th eory asserts that the destabilizing effects of industrialization on do mestic institutions and actors generate political conflict in an inver ted-U relationship. World-system theory argues that conflict increases in less developed countries when they become peripheral in the intern ational division of labor I use structural modeling (LISREL) to evalua te these hypotheses cross-nationally for the years 1970 through 1981. The results fail to support the curvilinear modernization model and sh ow peripheralization to contribute to political conflict only indirect ly through related increases in income inequality and vulnerability to the destabilizing effects of the world economy. Combining the two mod els and taking into account economic growth and ethnic separatism, the effects of peripheralization on political conflict are indirect, medi ated by vulnerability and income inequality. The effects of modernizat ion on political conflict are linear and indirect, mediated by income inequality and regime repressiveness. Both peripheralization and moder nization contribute to political conflict through their effects on dom estic economic conditions, social stratification, and state structure.