MODEL FOR CALCULATING REGIONAL ENERGY USE, INDUSTRIAL-PRODUCTION AND GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS FOR EVALUATING GLOBAL CLIMATE SCENARIOS

In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the ''Energy-Industry System'' is im plemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy us e and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes t otal energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use s ectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (''end-use approach''). The Industrial Production and Consum ption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are c omplemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissio ns by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. Fo r investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy sce narios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modifi ed. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the ''Energy-I ndustry System'' models is described as well as results from their tes ting against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the applicati on of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Fut ure extensions of the models are in preparation.