DRINKING IN CALIFORNIA - THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSES OF ALCOHOL-CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

A theoretical model is presented in which alcohol consumption patterns are expressed in terms of frequencies of initiation and probabilities of continued drinking once consumption has begun. The model is used t o explicate the relationships between measures of drinking frequency, drinking quantity, modal or typical drinking and total alcohol consump tion. A mathematical realization of this model is developed and applie d to data on quantities and frequencies of alcohol use obtained from a general population survey of California consumers. These data were us ed to estimate the basic Parameters of the alcohol consumption model, obtain drinking pattern estimates derived from the model and analyse t hese measures in the context of background demographic variables. Patt ern estimates from the model were bench-marked against self-reports av ailable in the original data. The results of these analyses showed tha t: (1) frequencies of drinking were exponentially distributed; (2) pro babilities of continued drinking were best characterized by a log-logi stic function; and (3) estimates of modal and total drinking levels de rived from the model were substantively related to self reports. Estim ates of total consumption obtained from the model were 28% greater tha n those obtained from standard quantity-frequency estimates. This diff erence was consistent with expectations based upon the theoretical mod el.