LEUKEMIA AND NON-HODGKINS-LYMPHOMA - INCIDENCE IN CHILDREN AND YOUNG-ADULTS RESIDENT IN THE DOUNREAY AREA OF CAITHNESS, SCOTLAND IN 1968-91

Study objective - To review the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin 's lymphoma in children and young adults in the area less than 25 km f rom the Dounreay nuclear installation and the remainder of the Kirkwal l postcode area in the full time period for which data are now availab le (1968-91), and to determine whether the excess incidence reported i n the period up to 1984 has continued in subsequent years. Design - Ge ographical incidence study. Setting - The Kirkwall postcode area of Sc otland. Subjects - Children and young adults resident in the area in t he period 1968-91. Main results - Observed numbers of cases of leukaem ia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and observed to expected ratios with exp ected numbers based on Scottish national rates were determined. In 196 8-91, 12 cases were observed compared with 5.2 expected in the zone < 25 km from the Dounreay plant (p=0.007). In the latest period, 1985-91 , which has not previously been examined, four cases were observed com pared with 1.4 expected (p=0.059). Conclusion - The observation of an excess of borderline statistical significance in 1985-91 following the substantial excess incidence which occurred in the early 1980s sugges ts that the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in this area should continue to be a matter of concern. The phenomenon of high incidences of childhood and young adult leukaemia and lymphoma near s ome nuclear installations in isolated areas is yet to be explained, bu t certain aspects of the data examined in the present report are consi stent with the hypothesis of an infectious aetiology for leukaemia in very young children.