PROGNOSTIC FACTORS AFTER SURGERY FOR ESOP HAGEAL CANCER - A MULTIVARIATE-ANALYSIS

Objectives. - The aim of the study was to identify prognostic factors in patients with esophageal cancer after curative resection, and to es tablish a predictive model of their long-term prognosis. Patients - Me thods. - Eighty-nine patients operated on for neoplasia of the esophag us, who underwent a curative resection, an who did not die within one month or during the hospital stay, were included in this study. Twenty -one variables were studied by univariate analysis. The variables link ed with survival were include in a Cox model. Regression coefficient o f independent pronostic factors allowed to compute a score. Results. - Life table analysis of the entire population, showed 2 and 5 year sur vival rates of 48 % and 28 %, respectively. In univariate analysis, 5 out of 21 factors were statistically linked with survival. In multivar iate analysis (Cox model), 4 independent factors were linked with surv ival : age (P = 0.02), the American Society of Anesthesiologists class ification (P = 0.01), parietal invasion (P = 0.03), and lymph node inv asion (P = 0.009). The score established with these 4 factors allowed to distinguish 3 sub-groups, discriminated by their long term prognosi s. Life table analysis of the 3 sub-groups were at 2 and 5 years 83 %, 55 %, 20 % and 60 %, 32 %, 0 %, respectively. Conclusion. - This mode l may be useful for the assessment of prognosis in patients with esoph ageal cancer after curative surgical treatment.