S. Merad et Jm. Mcnamara, OPTIMAL FORAGING OF A REPRODUCING ANIMAL AS A DISCOUNTED REWARD PROBLEM, Journal of Applied Probability, 31(2), 1994, pp. 287-300
A model in which a foraging animal can reproduce if its energy reserve
s reach a critical level is presented. The animal's reserves are model
led as a finite-state Markov chain. The animal has the choice between
foraging options which may have the same mean net gain but differ in t
heir variances. In addition to starvation, animals are subject to deat
h because of predation, bad weather, and so on. We focus on the case w
here the rate of mortality due to these sources is the same under all
options. We investigate policies that maximise the expected lifetime r
eproductive success. It is found that the optimal value function is co
ncave at low reserves (low-variance action region) and convex at high
reserves (high-variance action region). The value function under the l
ow-variance action has also the same shape and the same inflexion poin
t. This result allows us to compute optimal policies just by looking a
t the low-variance value function. The result is also used to show tha
t increasing the mortality rate increases the high-variance region und
er the optimal policy. The pattern of risk-sensitive behaviour predict
ed by this model is in contrast to that predicted by a similar model i
n which no reproduction occurs and the optimality criterion is to mini
mise the probability of death (McNamara (1990)).