EFFECTS OF MARKET FLUCTUATIONS ON THE SRI-LANKAN TOURIST INDUSTRY - RESILIENCE AND CHANGE, 1981-1991

Despite the rapid rise of tourism as a major international commercial activity and the marked increase in the numbers of tourists visiting t he Third World over the last several decades, the pace of publication of academic papers examining the growth and development of the industr y in various tropical locations has remained relatively moderate. This article attempts to redress some of this deficiency and to fill a gap in the geographical literature of Third World tourism. An investigati on of market fluctuation within the Sri Lankan tourist industry over t he last decade, in particular that of the rapid reduction in tourist a rrivals during the period of political instability between 1982 and 19 89, and the impressive recovery of the tourist market since 1989, is e xamined. The progress of Sri Lanka's tourist experience over time is a ssessed in the light of R.W. Butler's (1980) evolutionary model of tou rist development. While the early expansionist development of the Sri Lankan tourist industry between the mid-1960s and early 1980s fits But ler's model fairly closely, the market response of 'bust and boom' sin ce 1983 diverges substantially from his theoretical ideas. The case st udy also demonstrates that tourism need not exercise a wholly negative influence on an economy; but under the right circumstances can be of benefit to Third World countries. An outline is also given of the meth ods by which Sri Lanka has attempted to keep in check the negative asp ects of tourism in order to ensure that tourism is a positive and succ essful development strategy. In looking to the future, the tourist ind ustry in Sri Lanka appears to have the potential for continued growth and development provided political conditions in the country remain st able. The industry promises to be an important aspect of Sri Lanka's d evelopment strategy, if the negative aspects of tourism can be control led.